Tropical Storm USAGI Advisory vie, 23-11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
537 NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 220707Z F-15 SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE INDICATES
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, DEFINED
LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIVERGENCE. TD 33W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 33W IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 12 AS
IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-
LEVEL STR FORECAST TO BUILD OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA. TD 33W IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY, UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF VIETNAM AND WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72
AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED VIETNAMESE TERRAIN. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.//
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