Tropical Storm TEMBIN Advisory lun, 25-12

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 33W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 33W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 413 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A 240550Z ATMS 165GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH AN EYEWALL SURROUNDING A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 (77 KNOTS) TO T5.0 (90 KNOTS).
TY 33W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-
WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 33W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR THROUGH TAU 36. TY TEMBIN WILL
MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 80 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 12 DUE TO WARM SST AND
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 12, TY TEMBIN WILL WEAKEN STEADILY AS
IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST AND INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
VIETNAM. DESPITE RE-EMERGING OVER THE GULF OF THAILAND NEAR TAU 48,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TY 33W WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING AS IT
MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE MALAY PENINSULA NEAR TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 160NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 33W IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TOWARD A
WEAKNESS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. TY 33W IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH LAND AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OVERALL, DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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