Tropical Storm TEMBIN Advisory dom, 24-12

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 33W (TEMBIN) WARNING
NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 33W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 769 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A CURVED BAND OF INTENSE
CONVECTION. A 230634Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE INDICATES SLIGHTLY IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, HOWEVER, BANDING REMAINS FRAGMENTED AND
CENTRAL CONVECTION IS DISPLACED PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST WITH GOOD
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE LACK OF DEFINED BANDING. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TS 33W IS
TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 14 FEET BASED ON A RECENT ALTIMETRY
BULLSEYE PASS.
   B. TS 33W WILL TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR THROUGH TAU 72. THROUGH TAU 36, WARM SST AND
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITH
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS FORECAST AT TAU 24. AFTER TAU 36, TS
TEMBIN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED VWS, COOLER SST
AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. TS 33W WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 60 AS
IT SKIRTS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF VIETNAM BUT IS FORECAST TO RE-EMERGE
OVER THE GULF OF THAILAND BY TAU 72. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-
TC, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 33W IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS
IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR TOWARD A WEAKNESS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TS 33W
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND THROUGH TAU
120. OVERALL, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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