Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Advisory lun, 18-12

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (KAI-TAK)
WARNING NR 16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED CONVECTION WITH A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY FURTHER SUPPORTED BY NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS AND IS
BASED ON THE LOWER END OF MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.0 (25 TO 30 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE TO THE WEST OF TD 32W,
HOWEVER, PROMINENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS CREATING STRONG (25
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SSTS REMAIN WARM AND CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT NEAR 27 TO 28 CELSIUS, ALTHOUGH RECENT LAND INTERACTION
AND THE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT HAS SEVERELY WEAKENED THE SYSTEM.
CURRENTLY TD 32W IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BOUNDARY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO STEER TD 32W GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS TD 32W WILL EMERGE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
(SCS). THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RECONSOLIDATION, AND
LIKEWISE, SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 30 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES
UNOBSTRUCTED BY LAND AND WIND SHEAR BEGINS TO RELAX SLIGHTLY. AROUND
THIS TIME A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS
COVERING A VAST REGION OF THE SCS AND IN THE VICINITY OF TD 32W.
WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AROUND TAU 48, AND ACTING IN
CONCERT WITH THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW, TD 32 WILL
DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AND TRAJECTORY, LENDING
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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