Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Advisory sáb, 16-12

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK)
WARNING NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 436 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PERSISTENT CENTRAL COLD COVER (WITH CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES -82C) OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 151131Z GPM 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND A 150945Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF
43 KNOTS. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM PAGASA SHOWS HEAVY RAIN BANDS
PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (30 TO 35
KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY STRONG
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TS 32W IS LOCATED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST, AND A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH,
THEREFORE, MOTION IS SLOW AND PERHAPS QUASI-STATIONARY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE IS A MODERATE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING
INFLUENCES, QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION AND BROAD NATURE OF THE
LLCC. HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS REMAIN IN EXCEPTIONALLY TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, AND DEPICT A SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER WATER THROUGH TAU 24. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
INTENSIFY SLOWLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS THEN MAINTAIN AT 50 KNOTS AS IS TYPICAL WITH CENTRAL COLD
COVER SCENARIOS. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, TS 32W SHOULD WEAKEN
GRADUALLY DUE TO PERSISTENT VWS AND LAND INTERACTION AS IT
TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 32W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH A
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT. SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED BUT THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW.
DISSIPATION IS ANTICIPATED AFTER TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW. OVERALL, THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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