Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Advisory vie, 15-12

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 433 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE DUE TO EASTERLY MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A 140958Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTH QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM PAGASA SHOWS HEAVY RAIN BANDS PERSISTING
OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (30 TO
35 KNOTS) AND A 140958Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 38 KNOTS. OVERALL,
THERE IS IMPROVED CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A
141144Z OSCAT IMAGE AND A 140918Z WINDSAT IMAGE, WHICH SUPPORT THE
62NM RELOCATION EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING'S INITIAL
POSITION AT 14/06Z. TS 32W IS LOCATED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST, AND A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH,
THEREFORE, MOTION IS SLOW AND PERHAPS QUASI-STATIONARY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING
INFLUENCES AND BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC. DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS
INDICATE A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FROM A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE STR
TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY TO A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF WARM SST (28-29C),
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
OFFSET BY THE MODERATE TO STRONG VWS AND THE PROXIMITY TO LAND.
AFTER TAU 48, THE NER IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES WHILE
WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASED LAND INTERACTION AND PERSISTENT VWS.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 32W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH A
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT. SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED BUT THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW.
DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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