Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG Advisory sáb, 23-11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING
NR 012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 28W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 206 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW-LEVEL
CENTER EVIDENT IN 22435Z AMSR2 IMAGERY AND WEATHER RADAR DATA FROM JMA.
THE INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES, STORM STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE WEAKENING INTENSITY TREND. TS 28W IS TRACKING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST. VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (35-40 KNOTS) AND
PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER (25-26C) HAVE DISRUPTED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AND LEFT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EXPOSED.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST TRACK LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK BASED ON RECENTLY-OBSERVED STORM MOTION AND THE
LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 28W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER
WILL RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 36, PERHAPS
EARLIER. THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TS 28W ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DOWNSHEAR (TO THE EAST) OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE WINDS TO EXTEND NEAR TO OR OVER
OKINAWA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE STEERING PATTERN, AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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