Tropical Storm DAMREY Advisory sáb, 04-11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 28W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 328 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT AT TIMES, SHOWS A FORMATIVE EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE VISIBLE IN THE MULTI-SPECTRAL LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD. THE INTENSITY IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 72 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA, WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AND AREA OF WARM
(27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY HAS
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS TAPPING INTO
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. TYPHOON
DAMREY IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 28W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION WITH A PEAK
OF 85 KNOTS AROUND TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING THE COAST OF VIETNAM WHERE INITIAL LAND INTERACTION WILL
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. TY 28W IS FORECAST TO
MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VIETNAM PRIOR TO TAU 24. AFTER
LANDFALL, THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE INDO-CHINA PENEINSULA WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD. TY
DAMREY WILL TRACK BACK OVER WATER INTO THE GULF OF THAILAND AS A
WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AND FULLY DISSIPATE DUE TO INCREASED VWS
AND POOR OUTFLOW, REACHING FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK.//
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