Tropical Storm RAI Advisory mié, 15-12

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (RAI) WARNING NR
006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 7.6N 135.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 56 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 17 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS BROKEN UP AND CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED; HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED AS FEEDER BANDS WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A SEMI-CIRCULATION FEATURE
IN THE 140403Z ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE OVERALL IMPROVEMENT,
ALBEIT SLIGHT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
VWS, STRONG OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE
NORTH.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 56 KTS AT 140451Z
   CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 140540Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS RAI WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK,
MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES, NEAR TAU 48,
DRAG ACROSS THE ARCHIPELAGO, AND EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
(SCS) AFTER TAU 72. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL GRADUAL
THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 100KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
INTERACTION WITH THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM TO
85KTS AS IT EXITS INTO THE SCS. THE WARM SST IN THE SCS AND
CONTINUED LOW VWS, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL PROMOTE A
SECONDARY INTENSIFICATION TO 90KTS BY TAU 120.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 120.
THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP TO TAU 72
THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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