Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG Advisory vie, 22-11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING
NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 28W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
408 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND TIGHTLY
CURVED BANDING SURROUNDING AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
210641Z SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT DEPICTS A DEFINED MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE. FURTHERMORE, THE SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW
LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE BY 25-30 NM DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
THE UPPER LEVELS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 60KTS IS BASED
ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (RJTD) AND T4.0 (PGTW).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TS 28W IS IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OFFSET BY WARM (26-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. FUNG-WONG IS BEGINNING TO TRACK NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS FUNG-WONG WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE JET
STREAM AFTER TAU 24 WITH SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED VWS (35KTS) AND
COOLER SSTS DROPPING TO 24C. AFTER TAU 36, THIS JET STREAM
INTERACTION WILL FURTHER LEAD TO A CONTINUED INCREASE IN VWS
(+60KTS) AND A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY
TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND THEREFORE THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS LAID CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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