Tropical Storm DAMREY Advisory jue, 02-11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
235 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION IS CONTINUING TO
CONSOLIDATE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC).  THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 1800Z HIMAWARI INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (20 TO 30 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC
ANALYSIS SHOWS TD 28W IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO TAP INTO THE JET LOCATED OVER
CHINA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST OF TD 28W WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD AND KEEP THE TRACK OF TD 28W WESTWARD TOWARD
SOUTHERN VIETNAM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 28W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AS TD 28W TRACKS INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA IT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND REMAIN IN
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 27 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS TD 28W APPROACHES THE
UPPER LEVEL JET LOCATED OVER CHINA. THIS INTERACTION WILL ALLOW FOR
TD 28W TO INTENSIFY TO 80 KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN
VIETNAM JUST AFTER TAU 48. AFTER LANDFALL TD 28W WILL DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE DUE INTERACTION WITH LAND.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TD 28W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS IT REMAINS OVER LAND
AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK.//
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