Tropical Storm KALMAEGI Advisory mié, 20-11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 302 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON AN OBLONG 15 NM PARTIAL EYE IN ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 190520Z
SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE WITH CONVECTION PRIMARLY OFFSET TO THE NORTH. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5-5.0 (77-90 KNOTS) AND A 190520Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 72 KNOTS. STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ARE OFFSETTING STRONG (20-25
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE. TY 27W IS DRIFTING LOOSELY BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA TO
THE WEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 27W IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS THE
STR TO THE WEST BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. AROUND TAU
12, THE INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (25-35 KTS) AND LAND INTERACTION AS IT CROSSES OVER LUZON.
DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 72. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET
ENSEMBLE MEAN, STRONG CROSS TRACK AGREEMENT AND FAIR ALONG-TRACK
AGREEMENT IN NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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