Tropical Storm KALMAEGI Advisory lun, 18-11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI)
WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 27W HAS
FINALLY STARTED TO TRACK POLEWARD AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUASI-
STATIONARY MOTION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 170748Z SSMIS
37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS
BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE
NORTH. SST VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT 28-29C.
TS 27W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 27W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 36 TOWARD A
BREAK IN THE STR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN LUZON. AFTER TAU 36, TS 27W WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND INCREASING
VWS. NEAR TAU 60, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN STR AND NORTHEAST SURGE
FLOW WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS KALMAEGI WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND
DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING
MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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