Tropical Storm NAKRI Advisory sáb, 09-11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (NAKRI) WARNING NR
011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 25W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 080600Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 080558Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWING A LOW-LEVEL EYE. THE INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, TY 25W HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY AND TURNED WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STEERING RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM MAINLAND SOUTHEAST ASIA. STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER (29-30C) HAVE ENABLED THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND DESPITE STRONG (20-25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY IN THE NEAR-TERM AS PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSETS THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72, ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY POLEWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS CYCLE. THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST LIES WITHIN THE MAJORITY MODEL GROUPING NEAR THE CONSENSUS TRACK, A BIT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. UNCERTAINTIES IN THE CYCLONE POSITION AND ORIENTATION OF THE BUILDING STEERING RIDGE HAVE LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO CHANGES IN MODEL TRACK FORECASTS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES. BECAUSE THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT, THE PRECISE POINT OF LANDFALL IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT AND CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW.
   C. TY 25W WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND AFTER TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT GENERALLY INDICATES PERSISTENT WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF THE WEAKENED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.//
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