Tropical Storm GONI Advisory vie, 06-11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (GONI) WARNING NR
034//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A BROAD, FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST. DUE TO THE FULLY-EXPOSED NATURE AND A
TIMELY 050540Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KTS BASED ON A 050609Z
SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 37 KTS AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.0-2.5 (30-35 KTS) BY PGTW AND RJTD. FURTHERMORE, A
050240Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF 30-34 KT WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ALL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE. TS 22W IS TRACKING THROUGH A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OFFSET BY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND WARM (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TS 22W IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR. DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE VWS, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST, MAKING LANDFALL
IN CENTRAL VIETNAM AROUND TAU 18. AFTERWARDS, INTERACTION WITH THE
RUGGED TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT SHOWING A 76 NM SPREAD IN THE SOLUTIONS AT LANDFALL AND
THEN INCREASING TO 126 NM BY TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND.
THIS INCREASING SPREAD PLACES FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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