Tropical Storm GONI Advisory sáb, 31-10

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI) WARNING NR
010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 621 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
VERY IMPRESSIVE, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A SHARP 9 NM EYE, WHICH HAS
CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 9 NM EYE IN THE
MSI, WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM A 300438Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWING VERY INTENSE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE VERY COMPACT
CORE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AT 150 KNOTS
BASED ON A PGTW SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T7.5 (155
KNOTS), AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T6.8 (138 KNOTS), THOUGH THE RAW ADT ESTIMATE ALIGNS
WITH THE PGTW ESTIMATE AT T7.5. STY 22W IS TRACKING GENERALLY A BIT
SOUTH OF DUE WESTWARD, ALBEIT WITH SOME RECENT TROCHOIDAL MOTION
ABOUT THE TRACK MADE GOOD, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-
LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
STY GONI CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH VERY WARM (30-31 DEG CELSIUS), HIGH OHC WATERS, LOW (5-10
KNOTS) VWS AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH AN ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL TAPPING INTO THE DIVERGENT QUADRANT OF A UPPER-LEVEL
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, STY 22W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING
ON A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
BUILDS AND EXTENDS WESTWARD AND BECOMES THE DOMINATE STEERING
MECHANISM. BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48 THE SYSTEM RESUMES A WESTERLY
TRACK BEFORE TURNING WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER TAU 48. LANDFALL IS
EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL LUZON AROUND TAU 60 AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE. STY 22W HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY, THOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK BETWEEN TAU 0 AND TAU 12. BUT
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY INTENSITY AT TAU 12, WITH
WEAKENING THEREAFTER, DUE TO THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LIKELY ERC
WILL COMBINE WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN VWS AND LOSS OF THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL AFTER TAU 24 TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 125 KNOTS BY
TAU 48. AFTER LANDFALL THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSIT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CENTRAL LUZON, REEMERGING INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA AS A MINIMAL TYPHOON OF 65 KNOTS AFTER WEAKENING
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF TERRAIN INTERACTION,
INCREASED VWS AND ENTRAINMENT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG THE NORTH EDGE OF THE
VERY TIGHT GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 48 HIGH CONFIDENCE.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO THE WESTWARD IN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD WEST-EAST ORIENTED STR TO THE
NORTH. COOLER WATERS, ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND MODERATE VWS WILL COMBINE TO STEADILY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THOUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 200 NM AT TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR JUST NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.//
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