Tropical Storm MOLAVE Advisory mié, 28-10

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 332 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT AS IT DEVELOPED A 15-NM DEFINED EYE. CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS ALSO FURTHER DEEPENED AS EVIDENCED BY COLD
OVERSHOOTING TOPS NEAR THE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE, ADJUSTED FOR A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD
TILT, AND LINED UP WITH A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 270538Z ATMS PASS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KTS,
RJTD AND KNES) AND T6.0 (115 KTS, PGTW) AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED
STATE OF THE SYSTEM. TY 21W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING IN THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA, STEERED BY THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH,
UNDER OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST), SOLID EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
OFFSET BY MODERATE (20-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD, TY MOLAVE WILL TRACK MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM, APPROXIMATELY
83NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG AROUND TAU 18. INCREASING VWS AND
COOLER SSTS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TO 100 KTS BY TAU 12.
AFTER LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN, IN ADDITION TO
INCREASED VWS, WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM AS IT DRAGS ACROSS
VIETNAM, LAOS, AND INTO THAILAND, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48,
OR SOONER. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS PLACED ALONG
THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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