Tropical Storm SANBA Advisory jue, 15-02

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SANBA)
WARNING NR 23//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
SOUTH OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION BECOMING MORE DISORGANIZED AND SHEARED NORTHWESTWARD FROM
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, RAGGED, AND ELONGATED LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T1.0 TO T1.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) SOUTHEASTERLY VWS;
HOWEVER, A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE
SHEARED CONVECTION. SSTS IN THE AREA ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE AT 27
CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
LOW REFLECTION OF THE STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD SANBA IS EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN TD INTENSITY AS IT
NAVIGATES GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIP OF BORNEO INTO
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA STEERED BY THE STR AND UNDER A PRECARIOUS BALANCE
BETWEEN STRONG VWS AND STRONG OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 36, TD 02W WILL
TRACK OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER SSTS, TIPPING THE BALANCE AND LEADING
TO EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, POSSIBLY SOONER. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY BUT WITH
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED. IN VIEW OF THIS AND THE WEAK
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS OVERALL A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK.//
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