Tropical Storm WUTIP Advisory vie, 22-02

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
  TYPHOON (TY) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 484 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY
AS RAIN BANDS WRAP TIGHTER TOWARD A DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION
WITH A DIMPLE FEATURE, A PRECURSOR TO A FORMATIVE EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN
THE 210532Z SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BASED ON A
THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5/75KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 02W IS IN A STRONG WESTWARD/POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
THAT IS MITIGATED BY THE STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE VWS
FLOW. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 29 CELSIUS ARE
ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 02W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PREVAIL AND FUEL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
AT ABOVE NORMAL RATE, PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AS IT NEARS
GUAM. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY ERODE AS VWS INCREASES AND
SSTS COOL. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY WUTIP WILL TRACK NORTH AND ROUND THE STR AXIS
AS THE STR RECEDES IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.  AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR. TY 02W
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS VWS CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND SSTS
DECREASE, OFFSETTING THE IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE SYSTEM TAPS
INTO THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BECOMES WIDELY
SPREAD TO OVER 500 NM AT ITS WIDEST WITH GALWEM AS THE WESTWARD
OUTLIER. THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS ALSO VARY IN ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS. IN
VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF AND SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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