Tropical Storm USAGI Advisory dom, 25-11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 33W (USAGI) WARNING NR 25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 33W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 143 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
EYE APPEARED BRIEFLY BUT HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE IN A 240627Z AMSR2 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70
KNOTS IS PLACED BETWEEN DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0(65 KTS)
AT RJTD AND T5.0 (90 KTS) FROM PGTW. THE INTENSITY IS HEDGED CLOSER
TO THE RJTD ESTIMATE BECAUSE THE PGTW CLOUD SIGNATURE WAS T4.5 (77
KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TY 33W
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 33W WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD, AS THE STR RECEDES
EASTWARD, AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR HO CHI MINH CITY JUST AFTER TAU 24.
SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
AS IT APPROACHES VIETNAM, THEN WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 72. THE REMNANTS OF TY 33W
SHOULD EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF THAILAND AFTER TAU 72 AND THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE IT COULD RE-INTENSIFY. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO
POOR AGREEMENT IN THE NUMERICAL MODELS.//
NNNN
NNNN