Tropical Storm HAIKUI Advisory sáb, 11-11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (HAIKUI)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 30W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 100508Z
AMSR2 37GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS A COMPACT LLCC WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 2.0 TO 2.5 (30 TO 35 KNOTS) AS WELL
AS RECENT ASCAT DATA SHOWING 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 30W IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 30W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH A PERSISTENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FEEDING INTO THE WESTERLY JET, ACCOMPANIED
BY WARM SSTS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 36. NEAR TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
INTO SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS, WHICH WILL
SERVE TO HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BEYOND TAU 48. SHORTLY
THEREAFTER, TS 30W TRACK WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS IT TRANSITIONS
STEERING TO THE WESTERN STR BEGINS TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 30W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD,
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF VIETNAM JUST AFTER TAU 96. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 120.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36
BUT DIVERGES AFTER TAU 36 WITH A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. COAMPS REMAINS THE ONLY TRACKER
STILL SHOWING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD HAINAN ISLAND. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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