Tropical Storm NAKRI Advisory vie, 08-11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (NAKRI)
WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 547 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 070659Z SSMI 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. TS 25W HAS MAINTAINED AN ERRATIC, QUASI-STATIONARY (QS)
TRACK OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND RJTD, AND A 070217Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWING A SWATH OF 50-55
KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES OF
29-30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TS 25W IS LOCATED
WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGES
LOCATED WEST AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 25W WILL REMAIN QS WITHIN THE COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOWLY
TRACK WESTWARD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS POLEWARD
AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TS 25W
WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 WHILE GRADUALLY
INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS NAKRI WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD UNDER THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR EXTENSION, MAKING LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM
JUST BEFORE TAU 96. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY
AS IT TRACKS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY
TAU 120. DESPITE THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE EARLY
FORECAST PERIOD, THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT,
HOWEVER, THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LOW.//
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