Tropical Storm HALONG Advisory jue, 07-11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 24W (HALONG) WARNING NR
016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 24W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 10 NM EYE, PLACING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
145 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 060740Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE
OF 137 KNOTS AND MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T7.5 (155 KTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. STY 24W IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM AT 28-29 CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 24W WILL CONTINUE TO RECURVE ALONG A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN THIS TRACK UNTIL TAU 36. AT THAT
POINT, INTERACTION WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL CAUSE
THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AT TAU 48. DUE TO INCREASING VWS, DECREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND SLOW TRACK MOTION OVER WATERS WITH LOW OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT, STY 24W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
ETT AND TAKE ON FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE SLIGHT
VARIATIONS REGARDING THE COMPLETION OF THE RECURVE, CREATING SOME
ALONG TRACK DIFFERENCES. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, SUPPORTING OVERALL GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
NNNN