Tropical Storm GONI Advisory jue, 05-11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (GONI) WARNING NR
030//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM
BOTH PGTW AND RJTD, AND HEDGED BELOW THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
(ADT) ESTIMATE OF T3.1. TS 22W IS TRACKING THROUGH A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VWS, MODERATE
WESTWARD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND WARM (27 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS ALONG THE
COAST OF VIETNAM. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING GENERALLY TOWARDS THE WEST
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE NORTH,
ALTHOUGH THE LLCC HAS DEMONSTRATED SOME ERRATIC WOBBLING OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS AFTER EMERGING FROM UNDER THE SHEARED CONVECTION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WITH THE STEERING STR REMAINING ENTRENCHED TO
THE NORTH, LEADING TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL VIETNAM COAST NEAR TAU 40 AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. AS WITH THE STEERING PATTERN, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL INTENSIFICATION ENVIRONMENT, WITH THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TO LANDFALL, LEADING
TO STEADY INTENSITY TO TAU 24, THEN SLOW WEAKENING AS IT NEARS
THE COASTLINE AND VWS INCREASES AND SSTS COOL SLIGHTLY. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH LANDFALL, WITH
INCREASING SPREAD THEREAFTER AS THE MODELS LOSE THE LOW LEVEL
VORTEX, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO TRACK THE
SYSTEM UNREALISTICALLY POLEWARD. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.//
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