Tropical Storm GONI Advisory dom, 01-11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI)
WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 383 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
13  KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A COMPACT, DENSE, AND SYMMETRICAL
SYSTEM WITH FEEDER BANDS TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION THAT HAS MAINTAINED A 5-NM SHARPLY-OUTLINED EYE.
OUTSIDE THE PINHOLE EYE IS A CLOUD-FREE MOAT THAT SEPARATES
IT FROM AN EVOLVING 30-NM SECONDARY EYEWALL, PRELUDE TO AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN THE MSI LOOP THAT
PERFECTLY LINED UP WITH A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
IN THE 310521Z AMSR2 IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 155 KTS
IS BASED ON CONGRUENT AGENCY AND ADT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T7.5/155KTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY  FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT  WITH LOW
(10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA AT
30-31C ARE VERY CONDUCIVE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 22W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UP TO TAU 12;
AFTERWARD, THE STR WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM ON
A FLATTER WESTWARD TRAJECTORY, MAKE LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL LUZON
JUST BEFORE TAU 24, TRACK OVER MANILA, AND EXIT INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA (SCS) BEFORE TAU 36.  THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER, THE ANTICIPATED ERC WILL
CAUSE A SLIGHT AND GRADUAL WEAKENING TO 130KTS BY TAU 24 - STILL
AT SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY. AFTERWARD, INTERACTION WITH THE
RUGGED TERRAIN WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DECAY AND WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM TO 85KTS WHEN IT EXITS INTO THE SCS. AFTER TAU 36, STY
22W WILL STEADILY WEAKEN TO 60KTS BY TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASING
VWS (20-25KTS). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
NAVGEM THE NOTABLE RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS LAID JUST LEFT
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY NAVGEM
SOLUTION DRIVING THE VORTEX INTO THE STR.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, STY GONI WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD UNDER THE
SAME STR, MAKING A SECONDARY AND FINAL LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL
VIETNAM SOUTH OF DA NANG AROUND TAU 108. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE MODERATE VWS, AND AFTER LANDFALL,
RAPID WEAKENING WITH THE ADDITION OF FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE
TERRAIN. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL BE REDUCED TO 45KTS. NAVGEM
DIVERGES FURTHER RIGHT FROM THE TIGHT CLUSTER OF NUMERICAL MODELS.
ALSO, SOME MEMBERS INCLUDING JGSM, AEMN, AND UEMN, SCATTER AND
LOOP TO THE LEFT. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE CLUSTER.//
NNNN
NNNN