Tropical Storm TEMBIN Advisory sáb, 23-12

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 33W (TEMBIN) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 33W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 436 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERYSHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
FLARING CONVECTIVE MASS THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A 220723Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION RESIDES EXCLUSIVELY IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW
SATELLITE FIX AND CIRCULATION EVIDENT ON DOPPLER COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP FROM PAGASA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM
INTENSITY MEASUREMENTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND IS BASED ON THE
SLIGHTLY WEAKENED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SINCE LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY
IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TS TEMBIN HAS STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. TS 33W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS TEMBIN IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH. PRIOR TO TAU 12, THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE SULU SEA. ONCE OVER WATER TS 33W WILL
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN PALAWAN AND INTO
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AROUND TAU 36. PERSISTENT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS,
INCLUDING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 28 CELSIUS WILL
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY INTENSIFY. PEAK INTENSITY IS FORECAST
TO BE 75 KNOTS AROUND TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING VWS WILL
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 33W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AS THE STEERING STR WEAKENS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
SOUTH OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM AFTER TAU 72. LAND INTERACTION
COMBINED WITH INCREASING VWS WILL FURTHER WEAKEN TS TEMBIN.  AROUND
TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT BACK OVER THE GULF OF THAILAND AS A
WEAK TROPICAL STORM WHERE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER WEAKEN
TS 33W. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPREAD AFTER TAU 72, THOUGH
NOT SIGNIFICANTLY. DUE TO THE GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE MODELS
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, AND
THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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