Tropical Storm DUJUAN Advisory sáb, 20-02

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING
NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 682 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN THE
CORE CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AS
EASTERLY VWS REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG. THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS
OBSCURED BY THE CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE FLARING CONVECTION. A 190435Z
AMSR2 89GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC WITH A SYMMETRICAL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
TO THE NORTHWEST. EVEN WITH THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY HOWEVER, THERE IS
OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS SET AT 45 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, IN LINE WITH
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM PGTW
AND KNES, WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT PROVIDED BY AN ADT ESTIMATE OF
T3.0 AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 45 KTS. ANALYSIS REVEALS NO MAJOR
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WHICH REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, WITH MODERATE (20 KTS) EASTERLY VWS
BEING OFFSET BY VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
AT 29-30C. TS 01W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 01W REMAINS ENSCONCED IN A WEAKNESS IN THE OVERALL STR
PATTERN, HOWEVER IT HAS ACCELERATED WESTWARD OVER THE PREVIOUS 6-12
HOURS AS THE STR CENTERED TO THE EAST HAS EXTENDED AND MOVED
WESTWARD. THE OVERALL TRACK MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY SIMULTANEOUSLY
TAKES ON A MORE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. TS 01W IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHEAST MINDANAO NEAR TAU 36 BEFORE TRACKING
OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS AND INTO THE NORTHERN SULU SEA
BY TAU 72. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY VWS, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
UNABLE TO CONSISTENTLY MAINTAIN A CORE, AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO, WITH CONSOLIDATION AND
STRENGTHENING OCCURRING NEAR DIURNAL MAXIMUM, FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING
DUE THE DIURNAL MINIMUM. THE NET TREND WILL BE A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 50 KTS BY TAU 12, THEN STEADY WEAKENING
THROUGH TAU 72 AS VWS INCREASES AND THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE
COMPLEX TERRAIN OF THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE,
WITH THE CONTINUED EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET AND UKMET ENSEMBLE, IS IN
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 01W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR CENTERED TO
THE EAST, AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) PRIOR TO TAU 96.
THE STEERING PATTERN WEAKENS AFTER 96, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SLOWER
FORWARD MOTION THROUGH TAU 120. ONCE IN THE SCS THE SYSTEM WILL
ENCOUNTER A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS, WHICH COMBINED WITH CONTINUED
MODERATE TO HIGH VWS AND DECREASED OUTFLOW ALOFT, WILL LEAD TO
DISSIPATION OVER THE CENTRAL SCS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED
TAUS, WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN
WHICH UNREALISTICALLY MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO A LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A 270NM SPREAD AT TAU
120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSELY TRACKS THE NAVGEM SOLUTION, WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE.//
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