MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 23// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 504 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A QUASI-STATIONARY STATE WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS OBSCURED BY THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BY EXTRAPOLATING FROM A 250356Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH REVEALS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5-T5.0 (77-90 KTS). THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF VERY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT REMAINS IN A LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LOCATION FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE, THERE IS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO SUPPORT THE CYCLONE. THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED IN A COL BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER TO THE WEST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 34W IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND BEGIN TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL CROSS THE AXIS OF THE STR TO THE EAST AND BEGIN GRADUALLY TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 24, HIGH VWS IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE UNTIL IT DISSIPATES BY TAU 72. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE CYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN WARNING INTENSITY LONGER. IF IT DOES MAINTAIN INTENSITY, IT WILL BE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINNING AFTER TAU 48 AND COMPLETING BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN