Tropical Storm USAGI Advisory sáb, 24-11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 33W (USAGI)
WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 33W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A PERSISTENT
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A 230545Z AMSR2 COMPOSITE 36GHZ
IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON
AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 (PGTW) TO
T3.5 (RJTD) AS WELL AS A 230133Z BYU HIGH-RESOLUTION ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWING 45 TO 50 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20 KT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VIGOROUS POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. TS 33W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
SMALLER BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
IMAGE.
   B. TS 33W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD BY TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. TS 33W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SST (26-
28C) TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 12. TS 33W WILL MAKE
LANDFALL BY TAU 36 AND WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS INLAND WITH
DISSIPATION FORECAST BY TAU 72. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
(LOW UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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