Tropical Storm WUTIP Advisory lun, 25-02

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR
21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 172 NM WEST OF
NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
ASYMMETRIC CORE CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 16NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 240545Z SSMI 85GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY
INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH SHALLOW BANDING EXPOSED OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AS
INDICATED IN THE ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 5.5/6.5 (102/115 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES AND A UW-
CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 110 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE WITH LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. SST VALUES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 27C, ALTHOUGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT IS LOW. TY 02W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 36, TY 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-
LAYERED STR TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROPAGATING TO THE NORTH. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE
TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. AFTER TAU 36, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHEAST ALLOWING AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL STR TO BUILD TO THE NORTH. CONSEQUENTLY, 02W WILL TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATE. MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AS VWS INCREASES AND SST VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 26C. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS (OVER 30 KTS) AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL (200MB) WESTERLIES OVER THE
SYSTEM AS WELL AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHEAST
SURGE EVENT WILL SERVE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOLE OUTLIER, GFS,
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OVERALL, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE
TO THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT.//
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