Tropical Storm RENE Advisory mié, 09-09

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Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with Rene is
increasing and becoming better organized, with a broad convective
band forming in the western semicircle.  Satellite intensity
estimates indicate that the cyclone is close to regaining tropical
storm strength, but the initial intensity will be held at 30 kt
to see if the convection persists and what upcoming scatterometer
data shows.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/12 kt.  There is
little change in the forecast philosophy for the first 48-60 h of
the forecast, with Rene expected to continue west-northwestward.
This part of the new forecast track is similar to the previous
track.  After 60 h, much of the track guidance has shifted
significantly to the left and shows less of a northward turn by
96-120 hr.  This shift has left the GFS and the old forecast on the
right side of the guidance envelope.  This part of the new forecast
track is moved to the left of the previous track, but it lies to
the right of the various consensus models.  If the current guidance
trends continue, additional westward shifts of the later part of
the forecast track may be necessary in subsequent advisories,

Conditions appear generally favorable for Rene to strengthen during
the next 48-60 h, although the cyclone will be moving over sea
surface temperatures of near 26.5C during that time.  The intensity
forecast calls for Rene to re-intensify and become a hurricane by
the 60 h point.  After that, the cyclone is likely to encounter
moderate to strong northwesterly shear which should cause
weakening.  The new intensity forecast is unchanged since the
previous forecast, and it lies between the ICON and HCCA intensity
consensus forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 17.4N  30.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 17.9N  32.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 18.7N  34.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 19.6N  36.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 20.8N  38.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  11/1800Z 22.2N  40.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 24.2N  41.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 28.0N  43.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 30.0N  42.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven