Tropical Storm MOLAVE Advisory lun, 26-10

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING
NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A
250525Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO THE CLEARLY-DEFINED LLCC; THE 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A
SYMMETRIC MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION
WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KTS HEDGED
BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS, RJTD)
AND
T4.0 (65 KTS, PGTW/KNES). FURTHERMORE, A 250610Z ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS) AND A 250340Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF
63 KTS LEND CONFIDENCE TO THIS INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND IMPROVING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW,
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) CONTRIBUTING TO AN OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. TS 21W IS TRACKING
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN EXTENSION TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 21W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS
GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS PERSIST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY TO 65 KTS PRIOR TO
MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE EASTERN PHILIPPINES NEAR TAU 06. AS IT
TRANSITS OVER THE INNER SEAS SOUTH OF LUZON, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNTIL THE SYSTEM RE-EMERGES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY. TS 21W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY TO PEAK AT 85 KTS BY TAU 60 AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT
APPROACHES THE COAST. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH
TAU 72 WITH A 112 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. CONSEQUENTLY,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PHASE OF THE FORECAST.
   C. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SLIGHTLY AS
THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM. TS 21W WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS INLAND OVER RUGGED TERRAIN. DUE TO THE
TIGHTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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