MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 33// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW-LEVEL MICROWAVE CENTER FEATURE EVIDENT IN 270558Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. TY 02W HAS STEADILY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED IN RESPONSE TO THE VWS, BUT POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS VIGOROUS. THE CYCLONE LIES IN A COL AREA BETWEEN THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A SECONDARY STR TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. RECENT STORM MOTION INDICATES THAT AN ANTICIPATED TURN TO THE WEST, FOLLOWING LOWER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW, MAY HAVE COMMENCED. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWING NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM, AND FULL DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY TAU 72. AS TY 02W WEAKENS, THE CIRCULATION WILL FOLLOW LOWER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WESTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD ASSOCIATED WITH VARYING REPRESENTATIONS OF THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN. ADDITIONALLY, TY 02W HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD THAN PREDICTED BY PREVIOUS FORECAST GUIDANCE, ALTHOUGH A WESTWARD TURN DOES APPEAR TO BE IMMINENT AT THIS POINT. GIVEN NOTED TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN