Tropical Storm TOKAGE Advisory lun, 28-11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W (TOKAGE)
WARNING NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 29W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF COLD DENSE OVERCAST BECOMING ELONGATED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. A 270446Z GMI
IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION ON THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND NEAR
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 45 KNOTS
IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND A 270207Z
METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 45 KNOT WIND BARBS NEAR THE LLCC. SHIP
OBSERVATIONS IN COMBINATION WITH OTHER SCATTEROMETRY DATA IN THE
REGION SHOW A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE TAIWAN
STRAIT BRINGING HIGH WINDS INTO AREAS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. AN
UPPER-LEVER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND RIDGE TO THE EAST IS CREATING
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE SYSTEM.  CURRENTLY THE
SYSTEM IS SLOWING DOWN AND TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST AS A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST COMPETES WITH HIGH VELOCITY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A.  NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS TOKAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT AS THE NORTHEASTERN SURGE
DEVELOPS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXERTS LESS INFLUENCE OVER THE
SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 24 THE DOMINANT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT THE SYSTEM TO A SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, FURTHER WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. TS TOKAGE
IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 48.//
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