Tropical Storm MA-ON Advisory vie, 11-11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (MA-ON)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 668
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION
ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE EXPOSED NATURE OF THE LLCC PROVIDES
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE MSI LOOP AND A 100751Z
GPM 89GHZ IMAGE CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ORGANIZED LLCC WITH WELL-DEFINED
CLOUD LINES EVIDENT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE
GPM IMAGE ALSO SHOWS DEEP CURVED CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM ALL
AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE LIMITED CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE SINCE THE
LAST WARNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH
A POINT SOURCE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC PRODUCING WEAK
DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE CENTER. TD 27W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TD MA-ON WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. AFTERWARDS, VWS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE STRONG ZONAL MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO THE SYSTEMS
DISSIPATION BY TAU 72 OR POSSIBLY SOONER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, LENDING TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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