Tropical Storm HIGOS Advisory mié, 11-02

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 02W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 424 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
RECENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND A RECENTLY
DEVELOPED 10NM EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT MOTION OF THE
SYSTEM IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE OBSERVED IN THE MSI LOOP WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 105
KNOTS BASED ON THE INCREASING STRUCTURE OF SYSTEM AND AS DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES HAVE RISEN. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS BEING
OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
TY 02W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
BEEN INCREASED IN THE EARLY TAUS DUE TO THE RECENT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION.
   B. TY HIGOS IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE STR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS THROUGH A BREAK IN THE STR AND IS
EXPECTED TO CREST THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 36. AFTER CRESTING THE
RIDGE AXIS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST.
WHILE OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS, TY 02W COULD FURTHER INTENSIFY. AFTER WHICH, DECREASING
OCEAN HEAT PARAMETERS, INCREASING VWS, AND POSSIBLE DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT WILL INDUCE A STRONG WEAKENING PROCESS AS DISSIPATION IS
EXPECTED BY TAU 72. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO ALTHOUGH THEY DO DEPICT SOME
SLIGHT VARIATION IN THE EXTENT OF THE STR AS THE SYSTEM CRESTS THE
RIDGE AXIS. DESPITE THIS SLIGHT VARIATION, HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
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