Tropical Storm TEMBIN Advisory vie, 22-12

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 33W (TEMBIN)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 33W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM
NORTHWEST OF SONSOROL, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT CIRRUS OUTFLOW OBSCURING
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM  A 210348Z 36GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LLCC FROM THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ON THE UPPER END
OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0
TO T2.5 (30-35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 33W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS TEMBIN WILL INITIALLY TRACK WESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE. THE
TRACK WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 48. THE
SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MINDANAO SHORTLY AFTER
TAU 12 AND CROSS THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES, EXITING INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA PRIOR TO TAU 36. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER LAND, TERRAIN
INTERACTION WILL NOT ONLY LIMIT INTENSIFICATION, BUT IT WILL CAUSE A
BRIEF WEAKENING PERIOD. ONCE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION WITH THE SYSTEM
REACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH AROUND TAU 60 AND EVENTUALLY PEAK AT 75
KNOTS AROUND TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 33W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING STR WEAKENS. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TS TEMBIN IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
OVER SOUTHERN VIETNAM AFTER TAU 96. AFTER LANDFALL, TERRAIN
INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPREAD AFTER TAU 72 LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD BY TAU 120. DUE TO THE SPREADING IN LATER TAUS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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